Predictive model for COVID-19 outbreaks by UMP won a gold medal in MTE 2020 Special Edition
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We are all facing the global pandemic, COVID-19. To combat the pandemic effectively, there is a need for mathematical modelling to describe behaviour and spread of the disease. There are many mathematical models that have been used to predict the dynamics of the outbreak. It is interesting to know how can a mathematical model for COVID-19 can be used to find the appropriate date of reopening after the lockdown. Some of the common questions are: What would happen if the country reopened on a specific date? Will the pandemic be out of control? Can the healthcare system cope with the projection of cases?
Malaysia has passed the infection peak, and now the question arises on how to lift the lockdown and how the exit strategy should be done. Based on the situation, a research team lead by Dr. Norazaliza Mohd Jamil from the Centre for Mathematical Science, Universiti Malaysia Pahang (UMP) developed a predictive model for COVID-19 outbreaks in the form of Graphical User Interface (GUI). The project was made possible by the thoughtful contributions of the team members; Assoc. Prof. Dr Norhayati Rosli and Dr. Noryanti Muhammad.
The model can monitor and forecast the evolution of the cumulative number of positive cases of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A user will enter two parameters, namely the re-opening date after lockdown and the percentage of Malaysians who will follow the standard operation procedure (SOP) and practise 3W (wash, wear, warn). Then, the projection graph of the outbreak with numeric values will appear. The mathematical concept that underlying the method is compartmental SIRD model. Factors of intervention measures, such as lockdown, quarantine, healthcare system, and treatment were formulated in the model as piecewise functions to reflect the timely dependent epidemiological parameters. Through a system of ordinary differential equations, the model was solved by using the Runge-Kutta method that was embedded with parameter fitting techniques in MATLAB.
The model gained a satisfactory result and adequately reflected the trend of the COVID-19 data. According to Dr Norazaliza, the proposed model improved the fit of the SIRD model compared to other methods as it produced the closest similarity between model and data. This GUI makes simulation much more accessible to non-experts, especially with minimal experience in programming and the knowledge of mathematics.
The project entitled “Predictive Model for Pandemic Outbreaks: In Response to COVID-19” received a gold medal at the Malaysia Technology Expo (MTE) 2020 Special Edition - COVID-19 International Innovation Awards, organised by Professional Trade Exhibitions & Meeting Planners (PROTEMP) on 2 November 2020.
The Innovation Award has received over 95 entries from across 14 categories covering the entire spectrum from prevention to tracking, individual to group technologies and ideas, business concept to humanitarian efforts. The judging panel is composed of Asia Pacific’s foremost experts in scientific and research fields, upper echelon of education institution. Participation is from Malaysia, Poland, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and Ukraine. There are four classes of presentation: gold, awarded to the winner; silver, awarded to the runner-up; and bronze, awarded to the third place; with Best Awards for outstanding innovations. There are 25 Gold winners, 34 Silver winners, 23 Bronze Winners in this competition.